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How to ensure social welfare with low uncertainty

Phenomena taken into consideration

A population derives some benefit from living in a certain environment. However, in this environment, flooding can occur and cause damage. An individual protection measure can be adopted by those who wish and have the means to do so. This measure has a cost but reduces the damage in case of flood. However, the effectiveness of this measure deteriorates over time. Individual motivation to adopt this measure is boosted by the occurrence of a flood. The public authorities can also encourage the population to adopt this measure in carrying out information campaigns, which of course has a cost. We want to take into account the randomness of the floods which can occur (time of occurrence and strength).

A proposition of modelisation of these phenomena

A simpler model allowing to do some calculations

Description of this risk indicator

The proposed indicator determines under wich parameters the social welfare stays above a chosen value. We can choose the uncertainty we find acceptable: 1 %, 5 %,…

A proposition of formalization of the risk indicator

Calculating the indicator and presenting the results

public/social_wel_low_uncer.txt · Dernière modification: 2017/09/14 12:45 par charline.smadi@irstea.fr